NBA Western Convention standings predictions and winner 2024-25: Thunder on prime of very tight convention

Just one factor feels sure within the West this season — chaos.

There are 12 groups — 13 if you happen to imagine within the San Antonio Spurs — who anticipate to make the playoffs however simply eight spots. There is no such thing as a margin for error, accidents that hold a star out for simply a few weeks may tip the scales, and a few coaches will really feel their seats getting heat early within the season.

The closest factor to a certainty is that Oklahoma Metropolis, Dallas and Denver are going to be superb, the Path Blazers should not, however nearly the whole lot in between can be bunched up. Let’s break all of it down.

Who’s the favourite to win Western Convention Finals 2025?

Listed below are the present odds to win the Western Convention, courtesy of our companions at Guess MGM (odds to win the title in parenthesis).

1. Oklahoma Metropolis +300 (+500)
T-2. Denver +500 (+1100)
T-2. Dallas +500 (+1200)
T-2. Minnesota +500 (+1200)
5. Phoenix +1200 (+2000)

NBA Western Convention predictions 2024-25

TITLE CONTENDERS

1. Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder
2. Dallas Mavericks
3. Denver Nuggets
4. Minnesota Timberwolves

The one factor I really feel comfy about on this complete story is the Thunder to complete with the No. 1 seed — they did it final season, then added two key function gamers in Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein (even with Hartenstein out till December with a fractured hand, it is not going to sluggish them a lot).

The subsequent three on this record may end in any order and it will be anticipated, they’re all on the identical tier for a motive. With Luka Doncic in Dallas (my MVP choose) and Nikola Jokic in Denver, we all know they are going to be elite. I’ll add that I am much less assured in Minnesota (and nearly knocked them all the way down to the following tier), I am not bought on the Julius Randle match, particularly come the postseason (however Donte DiVincenzo would possibly make up for that).

FRINGE CONTENDERS (WE HAVE QUESTIONS)

5. Phoenix Suns
6. Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYOFFS OR BUST

7. New Orleans Pelicans
8. Sacramento Kings
9. Golden State Warriors
10. Los Angeles Lakers
11. Houston Rockets
12. Los Angeles Clippers

The truth is 5-12 is so bunched up within the West that this group may end in any order and it will be unsurprising. I predict that 5 video games in the end will separate the No. 6 seed group that avoids the play-in and the No. 11 seed group that misses the postseason solely. It should be that tight.

Phoenix and Memphis are on their very own “Fringe Contender” tier as a result of I imagine their ceilings are greater than the remainder of the groups on this group. If Mike Budeholzer can get the Suns to play protection and Tyus Jones works out in addition to a few of us anticipate on the level, a Phoenix group with Olympians Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are legit contenders (it is principally well being issues, and final season, that hold them out of the highest tier). Memphis was the No. 2 seed and a group on the rise for a few seasons till it was desiccated by accidents a season in the past, if Ja Morant returns to type and Zach Edey can maintain down the paint, this may very well be a top-four group within the West.

Each group left on this group has a number of expertise however faces tough questions: How does New Orleans look taking part in small with Herb Jones as a beginning heart? Can Sacramento get sufficient stops to win taking pictures a lot from the midrange? Who’s the Warriors’ second shot creator after Stephen Curry? Is J.J. Redick as much as the duty with the Lakers (and may they get one other comparatively wholesome season from LeBron James and Anthony Davis)? How large a step ahead will all of the youth in Houston take? Is a return to a heavy dose of James Harden going to work for the Clippers (and what number of video games does Kawhi Leonard play)?

HOPEFUL PLAY-IN TEAMS

13. Spurs

Victor Wembanyama could also be sufficient to get the Spurs to the play-in on his personal, and having Chris Paul as a moderately bossy mentor can be good for this younger group. They’re able to making the play-in, particularly if Stephon Fort steps up like a few of us imagine he can, however there are a number of good groups in entrance of them.

LOTTERY BOUND

14. Utah Jazz
15. Portland Path Blazers

Utah’s not a foul group, particularly with Lauri Markkanen on the 4 — he’s an underrated participant — however they lack the depth to problem on this West and can pivot towards the lottery in some unspecified time in the future this season. Portland has already signaled its intentions, however it will likely be fascinating to see how their wealth of younger expertise begins to develop and who will emerge as an actual a part of the longer term for the Blazers.

WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

First Spherical

Thunder over Kings
Mavericks over Pelicans
Nuggets over Grizzlies
Suns over Timberwolves

Semi-Finals

Thunder over Suns
Mavericks over Nuggets

Western Convention Finals

Thunder over Mavericks

NBA FINALS PREDICTION

Celtics over Thunder

Selecting the Celtics feels boring and protected, however they’re the one group that has answered sufficient questions for me to really feel comfy choosing them. Nonetheless, if Kristaps Porzingis (or one other key participant) will not be wholesome, a group like New York or Philadelphia may take their place within the Finals.

I really feel extra assured within the Thunder taking a step ahead and popping out of the West — though Dallas returning to the Finals wouldn’t be a shock, the Mavs upgraded this offseason — however I do not see anybody from the West beating a wholesome Celtics group. Not this season, anyway.