MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cavs’ uncommon heights and extra fearless NBA season predictions

As we put together for a brand new NBA season, let’s quick ahead for a second to Christmas, as a result of there’s a captivating story right here involving the league’s schedule.

You see, Christmas video games are maybe the league’s marquee in-season occasion (though the NFL is making an attempt to chop in on its enterprise). Basically, the NBA takes its 10 most marketable groups and throws them on the large display screen for a quintuple-header to entertain the eggnog-addled lots. Yearly when the schedule comes out, there’s one thing of a buzz round which groups and gamers made the Christmas minimize. Of late, there’s been one other aspect due to the undercurrent of “Who’s subsequent?” going across the league the previous few years.

LeBron James and Stephen Curry can’t carry this factor without end. However despite the fact that we’re occurring 9 years for the reason that 39-year-old James or 36-year-old Curry gained an Most Beneficial Participant award and three since both appeared in an NBA Finals, they nonetheless are doing a variety of the heavy lifting in relation to getting TV eyeballs. To a lesser extent, the league is asking the identical from 36-year-old Kevin Durant.

This yr, the league is asking James and Curry to raise their proverbial sled into the sky on Christmas night time, that includes the Los Angeles Lakers–Golden State Warriors in essentially the most seen time slot although neither group seems like a practical title contender. Their two groups are additionally first and third in nationwide TV appearances this season.

It’s not that James and Curry can’t ship — as we witnessed most lately in Paris — however there’s a actuality of time and age right here. They’re each of their late 30s and not among the many sport’s 5 greatest gamers. In the meantime, the three gamers who mixed to win the final six MVP awards — Nikola Jokić, Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo — every might be 30 years outdated by March; whereas they’re not precisely close to retirement, we’ve most likely already seen absolutely the peak for every.

So once more … who’s subsequent? It appeared to some we had an apparent handoff level within the 2024 playoffs. In a single nook, we had Jayson Tatum (age 26) and Jaylen Brown (27) main the Boston Celtics to the title; within the different, we had the sensible Luka Dončić (25) and the ebullient Anthony Edwards (23) dealing with off within the Western Convention finals.

And ready within the wings, in fact, is the San Antonio Spurs’ impossibly dimensioned second-year professional Victor Wembanyama, who has already grow to be one of many league’s must-see gamers and will interject himself into the MVP race as quickly as this season.

These gamers account for 9 of the ten groups chosen to be a part of the league’s marquee Christmas schedule, with the Knicks being the Tenth as a result of they’re New York. (They’re good, too, however they’re on the schedule even once they aren’t.) In addition they account for a number of of the groups the league featured in its tipoff advert … one which notably options Edwards (and, a bit bizarrely, co-stars the perennially injured Kawhi Leonard).

It leaves you to marvel in regards to the one group and participant who didn’t make that minimize. That may be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who completed second in final yr’s MVP voting, and the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder, who had been the Western Convention’s prime seed and determine to be so once more.

It’s fairly clear the league and its TV companions are extra enthusiastic about Edwards, for example, which makes me ask … are they making the identical mistake with Gilgeous-Alexander that they did with Jokić?

The NBA-TV advanced spent principally zero effort hyping Jokić whereas he was successful back-to-back MVPs, not till it belatedly realized he was by far the league’s greatest participant. Sadly, that wasn’t till about midway by way of the 2023 NBA Finals.

Gilgeous-Alexander can’t fairly declare to be on Jokić’s degree but, however we might be headed to the same place. Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t as telegenic as Edwards, however he’s additionally much more prone to be taking part in in June. It’s not arduous to think about a situation the place the league’s TV companions ignore him all yr after which complain about scores for an Oklahoma Metropolis convention finals or finals. It’s not simply the Christmas snub, both — 10 groups have extra nationwide TV run than the Thunder this season.

I’m going by way of all of this as a result of it’s time for my fearless predictions for the approaching season, and my massive one is that this: It’s SGA’s time.

He completed second in MVP voting a season in the past and might be pushing Jokić and Luka Dončić for that honor this yr. Nevertheless, Gilgeous-Alexander has two massive benefits in his favor: First, his group could be very prone to have the very best file within the West, maybe by a number of video games; and second, he’s prone to play extra video games than Dončić, specifically.

Consequently, my first daring prediction is that Gilgeous-Alexander will win MVP, regardless of not being on the league’s push listing.

GO DEEPER

Hollinger: Anticipate Thunder to run away with West, however can Suns blaze a path?

However I’ve a lot extra to debate. For starters. I’ll observe that I’ve given myself a tricky act to observe, as a result of a yr in the past, for no matter motive, this train went rather a lot higher than I anticipated. (Translation: I really obtained some stuff proper.)

That included the miraculous feat of accurately predicting the Most Improved Participant winner and naming Boston because the eventual champion. I additionally accurately predicted the LA Clippers’ and Chicago Bulls’ route shifts, the Timberwolves successful their first collection in 20 years and the West regaining its historic dominance over the East. Even my misses (Victor Wembanyama making the All-Star group, Jayson Tatum successful MVP, no teaching modifications by the All-Star break) largely weren’t off by a lot. The one obtrusive miss was my Coach of the Yr decide. (Taylor Jenkins’ Memphis Grizzlies gained 27 video games. Oops.)

So let’s do this once more. I’m making an attempt to keep away from the Captain Apparent stuff and bravely delve into extra questionable territory, even with the elevated danger of it ending in catastrophe. With that stated, listed here are the remainder of my fearless predictions for 2024-25:

Each West Play-In sport might be in California

Let’s begin with my boldest geographically targeted prediction ever (additionally probably my just one, however nonetheless). The Play-In Match dwelling groups would be the seventh- and ninth-place finishers in every convention, with a subsequent remaining sport hosted by the loser of the No. 7 vs. No. 8�sport.

I’ve projected three groups from California — the Warriors, Lakers and Kings — to complete seventh, eighth and ninth within the West, respectively, and I’ve a fourth California group (the Clippers) on the fringes of the Play-In race. Thus, it doesn’t seem to be an enormous stretch to suppose each West Play-In sport might be performed within the golden state. We are able to slender the geographic band even tighter, to a 90-mile stretch of Northern California, if the Warriors and Kings are the seventh- and ninth-place groups and the seventh-place finisher loses the primary sport. These two arenas are separated by lower than 90 miles.

5 teaching modifications by All-Star break

I predicted final season that we wouldn’t have a training change earlier than the All-Star break; on the time, I couldn’t have foreseen the newly employed Adrian Griffin warranting one of many quickest hooks in current teaching annals. Aside from the Milwaukee state of affairs, we virtually obtained there earlier than Washington let Wes Unseld Jr. go in late January. One different coach (Brooklyn’s Jacque Vaughn) was let go the day after the All-Star Sport, and people had been the one three modifications all season. (5 extra jobs opened in the summertime.)

This yr, I count on extra tumult within the teaching ranks. Simply undergo the 22 groups that didn’t make a change prior to now 12 months. There are far more warm-to-hot seats being held by coaches who’re far sufficient into their tenure for the honeymoon section to be over however not established sufficient to be “made males” within the mould of an Erik Spoelstra or Joe Mazzulla.

I believe 5 of those jobs flip over by the All-Star break in February. I’m not going to attempt to venture which 5, apart from to inform you solely about half the league’s jobs really feel actually secure. Put together from some turnover.

East will give us first 50-loss Play-In group

Within the brief historical past of the Play-In, we’ve got by no means had a 50-loss group qualify. Consider it or not, the present file right here is just not held by a group from the East, however by the 2021-22 San Antonio Spurs group that went 34-48 and limped into Tenth place within the West.

I’m fairly positive 9 East groups can get previous 34 wins with out breaking a sweat. Is there a tenth? On paper, it’s not wanting good: The underside-six groups within the East all appear greater than able to shedding 50-plus video games. I’m projecting my Tenth-place group within the convention to land at 32 wins and the opposite 5 groups to fall a number of video games wanting even that modest threshold.

Talking of which:

Atlanta might be in East Play-In as soon as once more

Residing in Atlanta means by no means clearing your calendar the week of April 15. The Hawks have performed 4 Play-In video games in three years and have a fantastic probability of including two extra.

Atlanta is seemingly on an island within the East hierarchy, effectively behind the eight groups that every gained at the very least 46 video games a yr in the past but way more proficient than the underside six groups within the convention vying to be the worst Play-In group in league annals. Accidents to good groups could mess this up, however on paper, it appears totally believable the Hawks end in ninth place and not using a group inside 5 video games of both facet of them.

Rookie of the Yr will come from exterior of prime 5

The final seven Rookies of the Yr had been drafted first, first, fourth, third, second, fourth and first. It appears like we would get one thing very totally different this season.

In a draft with no apparent celebrity, the highest two picks are prone to be off-ball function gamers of their preliminary professional season, whereas the gamers picked third, fourth and fifth face obstacles to getting sufficient minutes to essentially issue right into a Rookie of the Yr race.

With comparatively little distinction between the primary dozen or so picks, I’m calling my shot right here: We’re going to get any individual from deeper on the board who emerges to win the award. Possibly it’s ninth decide Zach Edey, seemingly getting a beginning job on a silver platter for a comparatively strong group. Possibly it’s eleventh decide Matas Buzelis, who had a robust summer season league and may get loads of run on a rebuilding Bulls group. Or perhaps it’s any individual actually out of left discipline, like second-round decide Malcolm Brogdon successful it in 2017. In a draft that wasn’t star-studded on the prime, I’m going to take the sphere over the primary 5 picks.

Wemby, Jalen Williams might be first-time All-Stars

Considered one of these predictions is within the “duh” class, however let’s speak extra about Williams. He could be crucial participant to observe in the whole league this yr. His capacity to take in additional possessions and provides the Thunder a reliable second on-ball creator will dictate not solely their speedy viability as a contender but additionally the larger image technique of whether or not the Thunder have to commerce from their draft decide asset pile to get Gilgeous-Alexander extra assist.

The fascinating factor about Williams is that he has a fantastic probability of constructing the All-Star group even when he doesn’t cross this check with flying colours. Between the uptick in utilization he’s prone to see with Josh Giddey’s departure and the truth that coaches might be trying to find any motive to place a second Thunder participant on the group if, as I count on, they’re forward of the pack within the standings, Williams has a fairly open pathway to an All-Star bid. That’s true even in a convention the place it’s been notoriously tough to interrupt by way of.

GO DEEPER

A stronger, extra assured Victor Wembanyama hopes to use offseason classes he realized

East won’t have a first-time All-Star

If you have a look at what number of elite gamers within the East have already made at the very least one All-Star group, it’s powerful to provide you with any individual who would possibly crack the roster for the primary time. The important thing stars on Boston, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Milwaukee, New York and Indiana have all made it, as have Paolo Banchero, Trae Younger, Zach LaVine, Scottie Barnes and LaMelo Ball.

Who’s left? The one lifelike hopes would appear to be Franz Wagner (prone to have the designated “Magic man” spot usurped by Banchero), Derrick White (“I such as you however not like that”) and Evan Mobley (probably fourth within the Cavs’ All-Star hierarchy).

Amen Thompson will win Most Improved Participant

Within the wake of final season’s profitable prediction that Philadelphia’s Tyrese Maxey would win the award, I’ve no alternative however to aim to repeat the feat. Scanning rosters and eyeballing candidates, I’ve settled on Thompson.

I believe notion will play an enormous function right here. Thompson’s rookie season didn’t actually register with followers, partly as a result of he missed the start of it and solely performed 62 video games, beginning simply 23.

Nevertheless, he was a really profitable rookie when he performed. Try these splits as a starter: 13.5 factors, 9.9 rebounds, 58.4 p.c taking pictures, two assists for each turnover and practically two “shares” (steals + blocks) per night time. He’ll need to grow to be extra threatening as a shooter (8-of-58 from 3 … yikes), however that’s the one space wherein younger gamers can typically make nice progress.

With Houston probably stepping up as a extra critical playoff contender this yr, and Thompson prone to obtain much more taking part in time within the discount, I count on him to grow to be a way more distinguished identify within the nationwide dialogue. Whether or not that’s sufficient to get him an award like this stays to be seen — normally it’s an out-of-left-field, never-saw-it-coming-type season that wins this honor. But when there’s a Maxey-ish-type yr on the market that perhaps we may see coming, I believe Thompson has the very best probability of delivering it.

Kenny Atkinson will win Coach of the Yr

I’ve to make amends for final yr’s Coach of the Yr decide, so let’s do this once more. The glory is commonly actually a “most undervalued group” award, given to the coach of the group that beat preseason expectations by the widest margin. That is true to the purpose that the man many suppose is the very best coach, Miami’s Erik Spoelstra, has by no means gained the award.

Enter Cleveland and Atkinson. I mentioned this in an earlier piece, however I believe the prediction market has weirdly undervalued the Cavaliers, particularly as a regular-season juggernaut. Moreover, Atkinson is in place to generate an enormous share of the credit score for this as a first-year coach, as he’s the one apparent change on a roster that returns all 10 rotation gamers from a season in the past. If he can really do some cool stuff on the sideline, a lot the higher.

Cavs will make convention finals

Escape your Mark Worth and Brad Daugherty throwback jerseys! With a deep, proficient group constructed for the regular-season grind, higher well being than a yr in the past and maybe some additional juice from the teaching change lumped on prime, I believe the Cavs have an opportunity to match essentially the most profitable non-LeBron James season of their historical past — the 57-win seasons the Worth-Daugherty crew put collectively in 1991-92 and 1988-89.

Projecting good issues for the Cavs this season isn’t arduous, however the place this prediction is taking a leap of religion is within the playoffs. Can Cleveland actually be anticipated to beat a group like New York, Philadelphia or Milwaukee within the second spherical?

Presumably … if the Cavs can present a little bit of a studying curve from their final two postseason misadventures, and if their opponents aren’t at full energy. I’m relying a bit on historical past right here to place some wind at Cleveland’s again, since there’s a good probability a higher-ceiling group just like the Knicks or Sixers might be injury-softened by Might. However this area isn’t for “vanilla predictions,” so let’s exit on a limb. Cavs it’s.

GO DEEPER

Hollinger: Predicting the highest of NBA’s Jap Convention, with one massive shock

Celtics will prime Cavs in East finals

That is the place I get off the Cleveland practice, particularly if Boston has a wholesome Kristaps Porziņģis by the point the playoffs roll round. Cleveland confirmed it may hold with Boston in Sport 2 of the second spherical this previous spring earlier than accidents hollowed out the Cavs’ roster, however there’s nonetheless an enormous hole between “hanging” and “successful 4 occasions.”

The Celtics gained the East by 14 video games a yr in the past and had been by no means challenged within the postseason. Sure, that was partly pushed by opponent accidents; I count on the second spherical and convention finals to be a bit extra daunting this time round. Nonetheless, Boston needs to be an awesome favourite to advance, particularly when you contemplate mid-to-bad-case situations. Put one other means, the Celtics are the one group I may see having an harm to a top-three participant and nonetheless make the NBA Finals.

Thunder will beat Mavs in West finals

That is most likely the postseason collection I’m wanting ahead to essentially the most, and it’s nonetheless seven months away and never assured to occur. It’s a doable matchup of the highest two guys on MVP ballots and might be a part of a recurring collection of postseason encounters over the subsequent a number of years. Final season’s collection was a barnburner, the very best one of many playoffs; it ended with a web margin of zero and hinged on a wild Dallas Sport 6 fourth-quarter comeback.

Final season’s Mavs had been a near-perfect antidote for the Thunder, however roster modifications to each groups could give the Thunder the higher hand this time. They’ve extra perimeter defenders to harass Luka Dončić, one other massive man in Isaiah Hartenstein to assist their obtrusive rebounding deficit and above all extra understanding of what it’s they should do in a high-level collection like this. Dallas, in the meantime, doesn’t fairly have the perimeter protection it did a yr in the past to deal with the Thunder’s dribble assaults.

Celtics will prime Thunder for title

Repeating is tough within the NBA, because the final six years have proven, however I believe Boston will finish the development of defending champions faltering. The Celtics had been head and shoulders above the league final season, in order that they have a little bit of room to take a step again and nonetheless keep a leg up.

The Thunder are the group that matches up greatest with the Celtics on paper, in a position to throw a number of elite perimeter defenders at Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Nevertheless, in a finals collection, one would additionally financial institution on Boston’s higher expertise providing an intangible benefit. I’ll say I give the Thunder the second-best odds of successful all of it, however sadly, I can solely decide one group to win it.

---

Signal as much as get The Bounce, the important NBA publication from Zach Harper and The Athletic employees, delivered free to your inbox.

(High picture of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Donovan Mitchell: Kirk Irwin, Sean Gardner / Getty Pictures)