Indiana Pacers 2024-25 season preview: Do not forget about this potential juggernaut within the East
The 2024-25 NBA season is right here! We’re breaking down the most important questions, best- and worst-case eventualities, and fantasy outlooks for all 30 groups. Get pleasure from!
INDIANA PACERS
2023-24 end
Offseason strikes
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Additions: James Wiseman, Johnny Furphy, Tristan Newton, Enrique Freeman
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Subtractions: Jalen Smith, Doug McDermott
The Huge Query: Was {that a} blip on the radar, or the start of one thing actual?
Many of the offseason dialog about which Japanese staff has the perfect shot at unseating the Celtics has centered on the Knicks and 76ers, following their respective large swings on the wing. However possibly we must always spare a thought for the staff that … y’know … truly performed Boston within the convention finals?
It’s affordable to harbor some skepticism concerning the Pacers repeating a playoff run that noticed them beat a Bucks staff lacking Giannis Antetokounmpo (and, for 2 video games, Damian Lillard) and a Knicks staff that was a MASH unit by the top earlier than getting swept by the Celtics. That framing provides Indiana brief shrift, although.
Postseason accidents however, the Pacers beat the Bucks 4 instances in 5 regular-season tries, lighting them as much as the tune of 122 factors per 100 possessions. The Knicks ran out of fuel as a result of Indiana made them hold the pedal down, surviving Sport 3 and staving off elimination in Sport 6 earlier than successful a street Sport 7 behind the best team-wide capturing efficiency in NBA playoff historical past. And whereas Boston blanked them within the ECF, it’s value noting that the Pacers led or had been tied within the remaining minute in three of the 4 video games. Even with a protection that couldn’t cease a nosebleed, and with All-NBA maestro Tyrese Haliburton lacking the ultimate two video games, the Pacers had been proper there.
That solely issues a lot in a results-based enterprise; as the prophet Dominic Toretto has advised us, one man’s “virtually had you” is one other’s “by no means had your automotive.” However whereas the pessimist would possibly have a look at the Pacers and see the 2020-21 Atlanta Hawks, about to backslide into imbalanced stasis, a extra optimistic type would possibly see a staff that made the ultimate 4 regardless of being removed from its remaining kind.
The Pacers return each participant who logged at the least 100 postseason minutes, six of whom are 25 or beneath — a reasonably wealthy supply of untapped player-development potential. (That doesn’t embody their 2022 and 2023 lottery picks: Bennedict Mathurin, shelved in March by a torn labrum, and Jarace Walker, caught behind Pascal Siakam and Obi Toppin on the depth chart.) That they had the East’s fourth-best file and third-best web ranking after swinging the blockbuster commerce for Siakam in mid-January, and performed at a 50-win tempo after the All-Star break.
They did so with Haliburton clearly at the least considerably hampered by hamstring and again accidents, providing hope for much more electrical outcomes with a full-strength model that, within the first half, was arguably the NBA’s greatest offensive participant. Now, they’ll get a full season of the partnership between Haliburton and Siakam, which began to jell late within the common season earlier than paying main dividends within the playoffs. Indiana outscored its opposition by 79 factors in 383 postseason minutes with the 2 All-Stars sharing the ground, scoring a scorching 125.5 points-per-100.
With the advantage of a full summer time and coaching camp to tinker with not solely that pairing, however one of many league’s deepest backcourts — Haliburton, newly prolonged playoff aces Andrew Nembhard and T.J. McConnell, a wholesome Mathurin, the rising Ben Sheppard — head coach Rick Carlisle might need devised an much more potent misery-inducer of an offensive machine. Contemplating the final iteration that completed top-six in [deep breath]offensive effectivity, help charge, turnover charge, efficient discipline objective share, tempo of play, second-chance factors, fast-break factors and factors within the paint [cleansing exhale], that must be an awfully daunting proposition for opposing defenses.
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Maybe equally daunting: the problem of discovering some new schematic solutions to enhance a protection that has completed twenty eighth, twenty sixth and twenty fourth in factors allowed per possession over the previous three seasons, and ranked twenty second within the NBA after the Siakam commerce. (The silver lining? The arrow’s pointing up!)
There’s some defensive expertise on the roster — bodily and feisty wings Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith; veteran rim protector Myles Turner; Walker, who is likely to be simply the form of rangy and versatile 4 Indiana wants — however most likely not an “above-average unit” crop. The fantastic thing about having a world-beating offense, although, is that there may not must be. If Carlisle and Co. can simply discover a workable sufficient protection for the Siakam-Turner pairing — one which additionally mitigates the harm attributable to opponents’ persistent focusing on of Haliburton — to even method league-average, then we would come to view final spring’s run not as a flash within the pan, however as the primary spark signaling the beginning of a vibrant, scorching new period in Indiana basketball.
Greatest-case state of affairs
Haliburton stays wholesome the entire manner, shepherding the Pacers to not simply the perfect offense within the league, however one of many perfect in NBA historical past. With Turner and Siakam creating extra chemistry and the younger wings stepping up on the level of assault, Carlisle’s in a position to assemble a scheme that manages to maintain limiting 3-pointers with out giving up by far essentially the most rim assaults within the league, permitting Indiana to settle someplace between fifteenth and twentieth in defensive effectivity — a recipe for effectively over 50 wins, home-court benefit in Spherical 1, and one other deep playoff run.
If every part falls aside
Carlisle can’t scheme sufficient across the personnel shortcomings to forestall the Pacers persistently giving up the shop, and the protection slips to bottom-five standing. Pretty much as good as that offense could be, even when Haliburton once more misses time — they scored at a top-six clip when he was off the ground final season, and their flotilla of complementary balI-handlers must be even higher — that’s simply too large an ask, particularly in April and Might. Indiana evades the play-in, however bows out to a full-strength and better-balanced opponent in Spherical 1, as questions over the way you construct a championship-caliber protection round Haliburton get louder.
Fantasy spin
As one in all basketball’s most fast-paced and environment friendly items final season, the Pacers turned heads as a strong hub for fantasy manufacturing. Haliburton performed in 69 video games regardless of battling accidents and averaged at the least 20 factors with 10 assists for the second consecutive 12 months. He is a simple first-rounder in fantasy drafts.
Turner remains to be an efficient shot-blocker to seize within the fourth spherical, whereas Siakam has a protected 20-7-4 flooring. I desire Turner over Siakam in class leagues as a result of Siakam’s defensive numbers are trending down, alongside together with his free-throw share. In factors leagues, go for Siakam.
Two late-round guys I like are Nesmith and Nembhard. Each are environment friendly from the sector, scrappy defensively and are available at an inexpensive price. Mathurin is a microwave bucket, however he is but to show to be a viable fantasy asset outdoors of scoring. — Dan Titus
2024-25 schedule
They simply gained 47 with Haliburton on a minutes restriction and/or restricted for 3 months, half a season of Siakam, and a rotation filled with younger guys simply beginning to get their ft moist. I’d take the over.
